NBA Playoffs Analysis: Overachievers & Underachievers, TWolves Rebounding, Heat's Zone Defense, Chet's Defensive Mastery, and Knicks Game 6 Adjustments

Welcome to the NBA Librarian Weekly, where we curate and summarize the best NBA content of the week.

In Today's Edition:

1. TWolves: Worse Shooting but Better Offense?

2. 1 Stat for each Playoff Series

3. Best Playoff Performers According to DRE

4. Underperformers and Overperformers

5. Knicks Game 5 Breakdown

6. Chet Unparalleled Rookie Playoff Defense

TWolves: Worse Shooting but Better Offense?

The Minnesota Timberwolves completed their impressive sweep over the Phoenix Suns this week, despite shooting worse than they did during the regular season (54.8% compared to 55.9%). How did they manage this?

The key was offensive rebounding.

1. The Timberwolves captured 39.2% of all available offensive rebounds in this series, which is by far the best of any team in the playoffs—the New York Knicks are second at 30.4%. This was a significant improvement from their regular-season mark of 27.5%.

2. Jaden McDaniels played a crucial role in this area, averaging three offensive rebounds per game against the Suns, compared to just 0.8 during the regular season.

The Suns were ranked 20th in defensive rebounding. However, the Timberwolves' next opponent, the Denver Nuggets, are ranked 15th. It will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out in the upcoming series.

1 Stat for each Playoff Series

Great piece by Mike—I really enjoyed all the stats, so I encourage you to check out all of them. Here were my two favorites:

1. From the Boston/Miami series: 1.52—this number represents the points per possession (PPP) that the Miami Heat have conceded to the Celtics when employing a zone defense. During the regular season, the Heat used a zone 13.4% of the time, limiting opponents to 1.02 PPP. However, in this series, they have only used it 8.1% of the time, giving up a staggering 1.52 PPP on these possessions due to Boston’s elite spacing, which effectively dismantles the Heat's zone.

2. The Timberwolves were +21.8 with Rudy Gobert in the lineup, clearly outperforming the lineups when the Suns used Kevin Durant at center. In previous years, teams would exploit Gobert by going small in the postseason—however, this season has sung a different tune.

Best Playoff Performers According to DRE

Sravan's graphic highlights the top playoff performers based on the Daily RAPM Estimate (DRE), a comprehensive NBA statistic developed by data scientist Kevin Ferrigan. DRE combines traditional box score statistics with insights from Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) to forecast a player's Wins Above Replacement (WARP). Despite its limitations in capturing defensive prowess, DRE can be useful for analytical purposes.

Interestingly, the graphic features players typically criticized for playoff shortcomings, like Embiid and Harden, ranking in the top 3. It also notes standout performances by Myles Turner in the playoff series v. the Milwaukee Bucks. And oh, Jokic is doing Jokic things too.

Underperformers and Overperformers

Great set of graphics from @CraftedNBA highlighting players who have overperformed and underperformed compared to their regular season baseline in the playoffs so far —

1. The most interesting players on the underperform list for me are Brandon Ingram, who had a terrible offensive series despite needing to have stepped up in Zion’s absence, and Darius Garland, adding more fuel to the fire that this backcourt pairing with Donovan Mitchell is sub-optimal.

2. The most interesting players on the overperform list include the top 4: Patrick Beverley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart, and Jaden McDaniels. These are all players that defenses would typically be comfortable with shooting from the perimeter in the postseason, as they are not high-volume long-range shooters. However, clearly, they are knocking down their shots, which has greatly increased their value as well.

Knicks Game 5 Breakdown

In their recent film analysis, the Knicks Film School highlighted several strategic adjustments the New York Knicks need to rebound in Game 6.

1. Firstly, they must stop doubling off Tyrese Maxey from the middle, as this strategy has consistently given up easy points and hasn't effectively disrupted the 76ers' offense.

2. The analysis also suggested that while Jalen Brunson has been targeting Maxey, he found more success exploiting Tobias Harris using screens and relocations.

3. Furthermore, Brunson's effective attacks on an ailing Joel Embiid from the right have been notable, especially when Embiid is forced to guard screens.

4. Lastly, the Knicks need to adjust their defensive stance to better anticipate and counter Maxey's preference for driving right, a tactic that could significantly improve their defensive efficiency against him.

These insights underscore the need for tactical flexibility and defensive rigor as the Knicks look to advance in the playoffs.

Chet Unparalleled Rookie Playoff Defense

Chet Holmgren has significantly impacted the Oklahoma City Thunder's defense in the playoffs with his exceptional rim protection, averaging just under four blocks per game, nearly doubling the output of the next closest player in the league.

His defensive prowess is highlighted by contesting 33 shots within six feet of the basket, with opponents shooting more than 12% below their average on these attempts, consistent with his regular-season performance. Holmgren's high basketball IQ is evident in his ability to make smart plays like drawing offensive fouls and effectively using his length and timing to alter shots without getting into foul trouble — both on the perimeter and interior.

Despite his impressive shot-blocking and shot-altering abilities, he faces challenges in rebounding, where his less physical frame has been exploited by Valanciunas in particular, creating potential vulnerabilities against teams with strong offensive rebounding. This might be more critical in future post-season series v. bigger and better offensive teams.

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