🏀 Mavs Eye WCF Return? Exploring DPOY Contenders, In-Depth Suns vs. Wolves, Season Trends, and the Sam Merrill Factor

Welcome to the NBA Librarian Weekly, where we curate and summarize the best NBA content of the week. 🏀 

In Today's Edition:

1. Most Efficient On-Ball Scorers

2. Analyzing the Suns and TWolves Series

3. Teams Ups and Downs Over the Season

4. Mavericks Another Run to the WCF?

5. DPOY Analytics: Wemby, Gobert, AD

6. Sam Merrill: The X-Factor

Most Efficient On-Ball Scorers

Great tweet by @CrumpledJumper — observations:

1. Shai is ridiculous — he has more than double the number of 'FGA' compared to Kawhi, who is second in PPP in these situations, and he is still the most efficient scorer out of these sets.

2. The Clippers have three players in the top 10 here.

3. Luka's volume in isolation is insane.

Analyzing the Suns and TWolves Series

Hoopvenue does a great job going more in-depth on the Timberwolves and Suns first round playoff matchup —

1. The Minnesota Timberwolves capped off a standout defensive season, nearly topping the highly competitive Western Conference. Despite fielding several all-defense candidates and the likely Defensive Player of the Year, their offensive performance remained average.

2. This paradox set the stage for a challenging first-round playoff matchup against the Phoenix Suns, a team that not only swept them in all three season encounters but also showcased a remarkable offensive rating of 125.4 against them—significantly above their season average. This matchup problem was exacerbated by the Suns' shooting efficiency, particularly from the three-point line where they hit an unreal 48.8% against the Wolves, suggesting a mix of strategic exploitation and possibly unsustainable shooting luck.

3. Analyzing the statistical trends provides a deeper insight into the series' dynamics. The Suns' offensive output against the Timberwolves saw a significant jump, with their offensive rating soaring by 8 points above their season norm. However, their basic game metrics such as shot attempts, free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds remained consistent with their seasonal averages, underscoring that the increased efficiency was primarily from exceptional three-point shooting.

4. On the flip side, the Timberwolves struggled offensively in their matchups, with a notable decrease in three-point efficiency to just 24% in the first two games, starkly lower than their season average of nearly 40%. These figures frame a narrative of a tactical mismatch and shooting variance that could realign with more typical outcomes over a seven-game series. The Wolves’ potential in the series hinges on their ability to normalize their shooting percentages and exploit their defensive strengths, setting up a closely contested series that could tilt in their favor if the Suns' shooting cools off.

Teams Ups and Downs Over the Season

It's interesting to see the momentum of teams going into the playoffs and how this will play out. Observations:

1. The Cavaliers are going into the playoffs cold due to injuries, while the Mavericks are hot. More on them in-depth below.

2. The Raptors' tanking is obvious. The Spurs are also on the rise.

3. The 76ers have had the most up-and-down season. The Celtics have been the most consistent.

Mavericks Another Run to the WCF?

Since the All-Star break, the Dallas Mavericks have ascended to become one of the NBA's top teams, boasting the third-best record and the fourth-best net rating in the league.

1. Notably, the Mavericks have improved their defense from a middling 19th before the break to a robust 10th position afterward, improving their defensive rating to 1.3 points per 100 possessions above the league average.

2. Offensively, they are scoring 3.5 points per 100 possessions more than the league average, outpacing the offensive efficiency of the 2022 team that reached the Western Conference Finals.

3. The strategic utilization of Irving and Dončić has been pivotal; with sets designed to exploit double teams on Dončić, allowing Irving open shots or lanes to cut through defenses. Their offensive rating in the half court with both on the floor is an impressive 108.3 points per 100 possessions, placing them in the top echelon of NBA lineups.

4. As the playoffs approach, the Mavericks' sophisticated half-court sets seem tailor-made for the postseason's slower, tighter defensive environment. With mid-season enhancements and the high-level performance of their stars, the Mavericks are shaping up as formidable contenders capable of making a deep playoff run and challenging for the top honors in the Western Conference.

Have an opinion on the Clippers v. Mavericks series? Head over to ‘The Peoples Take’ an NBA fan voting and poll website!

DPOY Analytics: Wemby, Gobert, AD

Taylor covers multiple different metrics in this thread—here are the ones that are most interesting to me in terms of the best rim protectors in the league:

1. Rim contests and defensive field goal percentage at the rim—Gobert wins here.

2. Rim deterrence (opponents take fewer shots at the rim when they are in the game) with blocks—Gobert and Wemby are similar in terms of deterrence, but Wemby has the edge in actual blocks.

3. Deflections/Steals—clearly Wemby.

Sam Merrill: The X-Factor

The Inside the NBA crew always refers to “The Others” being critical for teams’ success in the post-season. Jackson makes the case that Sam Merrill is that x-factor for the Cavaliers for their series v. the Orlando Magic.

Summary:

1. As the Cleveland Cavaliers prepare for the playoffs, their half-court offense remains a concern, particularly against strong defensive teams like the Orlando Magic, who share a similar defensive strategy with the Cavs of pushing opponents away from the three-point line.

2. Last season, the Cavs struggled in this area against the New York Knicks, who disrupted their pick-and-roll game by doubling the ball-handler. This season, Sam Merrill's inclusion could be crucial. Known for his quick shooting ability (40.4% from three) and adeptness at finding open space, Merrill could help prevent offensive stalls, especially as he has proven effective against Orlando by shooting 57.9% from beyond the arc in their matchups this season.

3. His ability to exploit defenses with his off-ball movement and shooting could be indispensable for the Cavs in a series that is likely to be dominated by half-court play. His strategic use could very well tip the scales in favor of Cleveland, making him a potentially underestimated asset in their playoff arsenal.

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