👑 LeBron's Heroics, Defining Clutch, OKC's Youth Examined, Pacers' Strategic Shift, Cade's Transformation, and Beyond

Welcome to the NBA Librarian Weekly, where we curate and summarize the best NBA content of the week.

In this Edition:

1. We Will Never See Anything Like This Again

2. The Clutch “GOAT” - not who you think it is

3. The Pacers are Missing Their Engine

4. Teams Limiting the 3 point attempts are the Worst …

5. Cade Cunningham: Tale of Two Halves

6. Simple Shot Quality Model v2.0

7. OKC: Too Young to Win?

We Will Never See Anything Like This Again

Jxmmy’s videos stand out for their unmatched storytelling and data visuals, perfectly complementing his narratives. He shines a spotlight on LeBron James, particularly focusing on his remarkable comeback against the Clippers and the absurdity and perspective of the season he’s had this year.

1. Unforgettable Comeback: For those who might have missed it, LeBron racked up 19 points in 6 minutes, contributing to 30 of the Lakers' 39 points in the final quarter to complete biggest 4th quarter comeback of his career.

2. Fourth Quarter Dominance: LeBron ranks among the top 4th quarter scorers in the NBA this season. His 4th quarter stats alone are greater than ENTIRE season totals of any other player in their 21st season.

3. Unparalleled Efficiency: LeBron is not only shooting a career-high in three-point shooting at 41% but is also attempting more shots than ever before from that range. His interior scoring efficiency remains elite as well (65%) on shots within 5 feet of the basket. No other player ranks this highly in both categories.

4. Historic Season: LeBron is still putting up numbers that are comparable to his past selves and former MVP’s. LeBron is top 5 in the NBA THIS season in estimated wins added.

Ton more in here, definitely check it out!

The Clutch “GOAT” - not who you think it is

Great video! Tons of fun NBA lego visual insights and, as always, great use of data and storytelling to paint a picture. Here are my summary points:

1. What is Clutch?: The NBA defines clutch as 'shots made when the game is within 5 points in the last 5 minutes.' However, this definition is flawed as it doesn't capture the essence of clutch moments, which are more about significant game-changing plays.

2. Clutch Squared: There's a win probability model called 'Clutch Squared' that assesses how players' actions affect their team's chances of winning.

3. Most Efficient: Using this metric, the surprise #1 player in this stat is Anthony Davis, who has a higher effective field goal percentage (eFG%) than any other player. Obviously, a big man will have a higher percentage, though, considering their shots are closer to the basket, especially since late-game situations are dominated by perimeter players.

4. Higher Volume: Accounting for higher volume, he goes over multiple players. Kobe Bryant, for instance, was efficient in the clutch. But Damian Lillard and Dirk Nowitzki stood out for their clutch performances as well.

5. Playoffs: In playoff settings, clutch performances become even more critical. Ray Allen and Khris Middleton were highlighted for their exceptional clutch shooting percentages in playoff moments.

6. Small Sample Sizes: The analysis suggests that clutch performance can be heavily influenced by small sample sizes, with just a few shots potentially skewing a player's perceived clutch ability.

He even covers how LeBron might have the highest clutch impact of all time and a lot more, so check it out!

The Pacers are Missing Their Engine

Caitlyn Cooper is the best in the business at covering the Pacers. Here, she goes in-depth with a ton of information on the Pacers' recent slide, losing 3 of their last 5 games, and Haliburton's role on offense during that stretch.

The main summary points for me:

1. Offensive Role Shift: Haliburton's role in the offense has shifted, with a noticeable decrease in the number of ball-screens set for him. He's being used more as a cutter or movement shooter rather than the primary ball-handler, a significant change from his usual playstyle.

2. Statistical Evidence: Haliburton's average of 51.4 ball-screen picks per 100 possessions as the ball-handler has dropped significantly in recent games, with figures as low as 29.7 against the Spurs.

3. Impact of Absences: The absence of players like Ben Sheppard and Doug McDermott, who contribute as off-ball movers, has limited the Pacers' offensive options and flexibility.

She goes over that this should be more a temporary blip for the Pacers than an overly concerning trend. Subscribe to her Patreon for more!

Teams Limiting the 3 point attempts are the Worst NBA Defenses

What stands out to me is Minnesota. Their half-court defense is dominant.

Cade Cunningham: Tale of Two Halves

We've previously discussed Cade Cunningham's early-season struggles in this newsletter. In the first 25 games, Cade led the league in turnovers and posted one of the lowest true shooting percentages in the NBA, contributing to the Detroit Pistons' dismal record of only two wins, making them the laughingstock of the league.

However, HoopVenue delves deeper into the significant improvement that began in mid-December, presenting a "tale of two seasons."

• Since that turning point, Cunningham has shown marked improvement across the board, increasing his scoring and assists while reducing turnovers. His efficiency has notably surged, with his mid-range shooting percentage rising from 39% in the initial 25 games to over 50%, placing him among the elite mid-range scorers in the league.

• This enhancement in his mid-range game, along with his proficiency in the pick-and-roll (averaging nearly 10 points per game from these plays), underscores his growing composure and refined shot selection.

Simple Shot Quality Model v2.0

This statistic is designed to evaluate the quality of a player's shot selection based on their shooting locations on the court. It compares an individual's shooting success in various court areas to the average success rates of all NBA players in those same zones. We highlighted v1 here.

Sravan has now released version 2 and has partnered with centersculture.com! This updated model also considers the distance of the defender, the type of shot, and the touch time.

Really neat. Check it out!

OKC: Too Young to Win?

Key summary points:

1. The Oklahoma City Thunder boast the second-best record and point differential in the NBA. Their performance has only improved as the season progressed, highlighted by recent victories over the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Clippers, and Celtics.

2. Despite their regular-season achievements, doubts about their championship prospects persist, primarily due to the team's youth and lack of playoff experience. Their starters collectively have less playoff experience than Jayson Tatum accumulated in his rookie year.

3. Historical data, however, leans in favor of the Thunder, with 85% of teams exhibiting similar point differentials historically advancing to the Conference Finals.

4. With an average age of just over 24, the Thunder could become the youngest NBA champions in history, surpassing the '77 Blazers. Their top-five offense and defense, coupled with leading the league with 20 points per game off turnovers and showcasing highly effective pick-and-roll and transition plays, highlight their potential to surmount their inexperience.

5. Their record against top 10 teams, featuring the best point differential, cements their status as a legitimate championship contender, challenging the conventional belief that youth and inexperience are significant obstacles to NBA success.

Also, subscribe to the Basketball Intelligence newsletter. It's a fantastic source of inspiration for the articles and content I choose to include in mine: