Welcome to the NBA Librarian Weekly, where we curate and summarize the best NBA content of the week.

In this week’s edition:

1. Does Losing Lead to Winning? An Analysis of the Winning Paradox in Sports

2. Leading Scorers in the NBA by zone

3. The Dante Exum theory: Why surrounding Luka Dončić with players who have high-level European experience is a winning recipe

4. Best value contracts in the NBA

5. Is the Dame-Giannis Pick-and-Roll a Work in Progress or Just an Afterthought?

6. NAZ REID

7. How Trayce Jackson-Davis can redefine the Warriors’ concept of gravity

8. Suns futile play in the 4th

Does Losing Lead to Winning? An Analysis of the Winning Paradox in Sports

Michael MacKelvie's videos, while a bit cheesy and sensationalized, offer engaging storytelling, impressive graphics, and cover intriguing topics. His latest video delves into how basketball teams perform depending on whether they're trailing or leading, with a focus on both offense and defense.

Key points include:

1. The Rubber Band Effect: Using a Celtics vs. Nuggets game as an example, he explores the 'rubber band effect' in sports. Teams like the Celtics, expected to build on a significant lead, often underperform due to this effect. This trend is consistent across all the games he analyzed in modern NBA seasons.

2. Strategic Adjustments: Leading teams typically play more risk averse defensively, avoiding more variance play and favoring two-pointers over three-pointers, while trailing teams increase their three-point attempts and efficiency.

3. Psychological Factors: The psychological response to being scored on often spurs increased effort, especially in defense. Studies by Devin Pope and Jonah Berger show that teams slightly behind at halftime frequently end up winning. And teams that are down one have a slightly higher win % than teams up one down the stretch. This could be related to loss aversion, as described in Tversky and Kahneman's prospect theory, suggesting a stronger emotional impact from losses than gains, motivating greater effort when behind.

Leading Scorers in the NBA by zone

Here are the top scorers in the league by specific areas on the court. It's important to note that this isn't about efficiency. Among the top eight scorers this season, three names surprisingly don't feature in this graphic:

4th in scoring: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander → averaging 30.7 points per game
6th in scoring: De’Aaron Fox → averaging 30.1 points per game
7th in scoring: Stephen Curry → averaging 28.0 points per game

Interestingly, I would have expected SGA to appear in one of the mid-range spots, given how lethal he’s been this season.

The Dante Exum theory: Why surrounding Luka Dončić with players who have high-level European experience is a winning recipe

Mette Robertson's article delves into Dante Exum's transformative journey from the NBA to playing overseas and back to the NBA.

The piece shines a light on how Exum's off-the-ball skills, much improved shooting and European style, coupled with his ability as a secondary or tertiary ball-handler, have not only elevated his game for a more seamless re-integration into the NBA but also turned him into an invaluable ally for Luka.

The article also touches upon the evolving dynamics of the NBA, particularly the increasing demand for shooters to do more than just catch and shoot. As the league's defenses adeptly adapt to offense-heavy strategies, the necessity for players who can swiftly think and creatively play is on the rise. This trend leads to pondering if the Mavericks will continue seeking out such versatile role players to stay ahead in the game.

Best value contracts in the NBA

For those unfamiliar, EPM stands for Estimated Plus/Minus. You can find its definition here: EPM Definition. It offers excellent insight into the league's most impactful players.

Two points particularly catch my attention:

1. Could Derrick White be considered the NBA's most impactful non-All-Star player? His contribution shows up in any impact stat I see.

2. It's intriguing to compare the value additions of Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen, especially given that both names have surfaced heavily in trade rumors. Their comparative impact in this metric offers a fascinating perspective on their potential trade value.

Is the Dame-Giannis Pick-and-Roll a Work in Progress or Just an Afterthought?

In his insightful article, Rob Mahoney explores the evolving dynamics of the Milwaukee Bucks with the new pairing of Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. He sheds light on their potential yet seemingly underexplored synergy on the court:

1. It's interesting to note that Lillard and Antetokounmpo often operate independently during games, leading to fewer pick-and-roll plays than one might expect. This has resulted in a somewhat diminished collective momentum.

2. Despite not fully leveraging their two stars in pick-and-roll actions, the Bucks have emerged as one of the most efficient scoring teams in this play type, according to Synergy Sports data. Their prowess in half-court play and crucial game moments is largely attributed to Lillard's strategic influence and Giannis's remarkable scoring abilities, highlighted by his career-high 64 points in a game against the Pacers.

Mahoney draws parallels between this duo and other notable NBA pairings, such as Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, and Joel Embiid and James Harden. He proposes that while the pick-and-roll is undeniably effective, it isn't the sole defining element of a team's offense.

The article also emphasizes the ongoing adjustments both Lillard and Giannis are making. Coach Adrian Griffin has noted that the pick-and-roll hasn't been a top priority, but as Lillard adapts to Giannis's screening style and Giannis becomes accustomed to Lillard's handling of trapping situations, their on-court relationship is expected to strengthen as the season progresses.

“NAZ REID”

Jace Frederick of the Pioneer Press spotlights the unheralded skills of Naz Reid, the center for the Minnesota Timberwolves, especially in his recent standout performance against the Dallas Mavericks.

Key Highlights (Article behind a pay-wall):

• Impressive Stats: In his last 5 games, Reid has been averaging 18.4 points and 7.0 rebounds off the bench. This includes a stellar 27-point game with seven three-pointers in a win over the Mavericks.

• Praise from Luka Doncic: Mavericks star Luka Doncic praised Reid, calling him "an amazing player."

• Efficiency on Point: Reid has been near a 50/40/90 player this season, showcasing his high efficiency.

• Versatility Celebrated: Coach Finch and others in the NBA circle have lauded Reid’s versatility. He's not just a three-point threat; his transition play, off-the-ball movement, and drive-and-kick dribble game make him a complete offensive package.

In summary, Naz Reid's diverse skill set and exceptional recent performances have not only grabbed the attention of teammates and coaches but also earned respect from opponents. His shooting prowess and offensive versatility are drawing comparisons with the league's top players. Reid's capabilities indicate that, despite his current role as a reserve, he has the potential to be a leading big man in the NBA.

How Trayce Jackson-Davis can redefine the Warriors’ concept of gravity

Link to article by Joe Viray delves into the concept of "gravity" in basketball, with a keen focus on how Steph Curry and Trayce Jackson-Davis influence the Golden State Warriors' offense.

1. "Gravity" in basketball terms refers to a player's knack for drawing defensive attention, thereby creating offensive advantages. Steph Curry stands as the prime exemplar of this phenomenon in the NBA.

2. When Curry handles the ball in pick-and-roll plays, the Warriors score an impressive 1.075 points per possession.

3. "Roll gravity" mirrors Curry’s effect but zeroes in on the impact of a big man in the paint, whose presence compels defensive adjustments and opens up scoring opportunities for teammates.

Jackson-Davis has emerged as a potential force in roll gravity. His knack for compelling defensive shifts paves the way for his teammates' scoring. The combination of Curry's magnetic on-ball presence and Jackson-Davis' roll gravity has proven to be a formidable duo, as seen in plays where Jackson-Davis's movements create open shots for others.

The article argues for more regular playtime for Jackson-Davis, backing this up with a wealth of video evidence and statistics.

Suns futile play in the 4th

It's jarring to consider how poorly the Suns have performed in the 4th quarter this year. While their health issues can't be overlooked, the stats are quite damning - anything ranking lower than the Detroit Pistons this season is a bad sign for your team that needs to be addressed.

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